Beirut, 2 April 2026 -- A 20% increase in global food prices could push an additional 5 million people into food insecurity across Arab middle- and low-income countries, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) warns in a new policy brief. The report underscores that this risk is immediate and growing, particularly for fragile and conflict-affected countries with limited fiscal space and high dependence on food imports.
 
The brief, titled “Conflict and its shockwaves: escalating impacts and risks for energy, water and food systems in the Arab region”, cautions that the escalating conflict in the region is triggering severe and interconnected shocks to energy, water and food systems, with potentially devastating consequences for human security and economic stability.
 
It highlights how disruptions to energy trade have been the most immediate macroeconomic shock. Oil markets are under acute stress, with Gulf hydrocarbon exports falling by 75 to 90% since the start of the war and oil prices surging above 2 per barrel due to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions are driving inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and sharply increasing transport and insurance costs across the region.
 
Water security risks are equally alarming. The brief notes that nearly 40 million people in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries depend on desalinated water drawn from the Gulf, making them highly vulnerable to any damage to energy or desalination infrastructure, as well as to marine pollution caused by the conflict. Any prolonged disruption could rapidly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, given  limited household-level  emergency water storage.
 
“These overwhelming figures entail urgent and coordinated regional action to safeguard critical supply chains,” urged ESCWA Acting Executive Secretary Mourad Wahba. “Such actions include deploying early warning systems, ensuring regional storage of strategic reserves, diversifying trade corridors, and accelerating investment in resilient energy, water and food systems.”
 
Food systems are already feeling the strain. The Arab region imports most of its cereals, and reserves remain limited, covering just over three months of consumption in recent years. Rising fuel prices, disrupted shipping routes and higher fertilizer costs are expected to further increase food prices and production costs, disproportionately affecting low-income households and vulnerable groups.
 
“Without swift intervention, the compounding effects of conflict could deepen poverty, fuel social unrest in fragile countries and reverse progress towards sustainable development across the Arab region,” Wahba added.
 
The brief is the second in a series of studies issued by ESCWA on the shockwaves of the conflict, the first having estimated that Arab economic output would be cut by 0 billion in one month.